Each spring we publish data on people in Wales living in relative income poverty. These figures are based on data from the Department for Work and Pensions’ (DWP) Family Resources Survey (FRS). This survey is the main source of data for household income and poverty in the UK.

Darllenwch y dudalen hon yn Gymraeg.

For the upcoming statistics on 26 March 2026, DWP have announced improvements to the most recent statistics, which mean that some data will not be comparable with previous years. This also applies to DWP’s Households Below Average Income (HBAI) dataset published on the same day.

This blog describes what is changing and why.

Using benefits records to improve measures of income

Traditionally, the FRS has relied on people answering questions about their income, benefits and earnings. While this works well in many cases, people can sometimes forget things or misunderstand questions, leading to inaccurate responses. While DWP already take many steps to tackle inaccurate responses, a better, more comprehensive solution is now available.

The traditionally survey-based statistics are being updated to make better use of information the government already holds. Instead of relying only on what people say in the survey, the new approach links survey responses to anonymised official records to more accurately record household income. For example, household benefit income can be sourced from benefit payment records rather than relying on an individual’s response.

The survey is still essential, because it collects information that the available administrative records do not cover, such as household circumstances. But by combining the two sources, the statistics should give a more accurate picture of incomes and poverty.

Changes will be introduced gradually, with some figures changing as each new improvement is rolled out. For the 2026 data release, administrative data will replace survey data in measuring income for the majority of DWP and His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) benefits. This will apply from financial year ending (FYE) 2019 onwards, which is the first year when DWP can lawfully link most survey responses to benefit records.

DWP will make this change in two stages over the coming months, and users should be careful interpreting trends over time whilst these staged revisions are introduced:

• on 26 March 2026, at the same time as the new FYE 2025 data is published, they will publish updated statistics for FYE 2022 to 2024
• in summer 2026 they will publish updated statistics for FYE 2019 to 2021

Updating the absolute poverty reference year

Absolute poverty measures whether households are living on a low income compared with a fixed standard. It does this by taking the UK median income in a chosen reference year, adjusting it for inflation, and then seeing how many people fall below 60% of that level in other years.

Until now, the reference year has been FYE 2011. Ahead of the 2026 data update, DWP has reviewed the absolute poverty measure and decided to update the reference year from FYE 2011 to the latest year available FYE 2025.

The update will apply to statistics back to FYE 2022 on 26 March 2026 and to FYE 2019 in summer 2026. This change helps keep the measure relevant, but it also means users need to be extra cautious when interpreting historical trends in absolute poverty.

More changes ahead

DWP plan to make further improvements in 2027, when the way the FRS statistics are scaled to population totals (known as grossing, or weighting) is updated.  This update will incorporate the latest census population data (Census 2021) and will result in a new back series of revised datasets for the FRS, and of poverty statistics.

In future, there may be further data changes as DWP continue their long-term work programme to:

• integrate HMRC PAYE and self-assessment data and other administrative sources into the FRS dataset
• review the survey grossing scheme to ensure statistics better reflect state benefit receipt across the whole population (rather than only the sampled population)

What this means for poverty statistics for Wales

The DWP publications include high level data on those experiencing poverty in Wales and other countries or regions of the UK. We publish extra analysis to enable a better understanding of those groups most likely to be in poverty in Wales, with a focus on relative income poverty after housing costs.

The changes being introduced to the poverty statistics will lead to better data in the long run. However, because these changes are still ongoing, the figures are less certain than usual and will be revised in future as methods continue to improve. This uncertainty is greater when the data are broken down below UK level.

To be open and clear with users, we want our poverty statistics for Wales to be temporarily labelled as official statistics in development and have written to the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) to request this. This would signal that the data can still be used, but that figures are subject to revision as the changes continue to be embedded. The same approach is being taken in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

We are committed to helping users understand the developments and interpret changes appropriately. Our outputs will describe how the statistics can and cannot be used, and will explain uncertainty in the estimates and trend comparisons. We will clearly show where the data series changes in tables and charts.

Children living in deep material poverty

A child is in deep material poverty if they lack at least four out of 13 essential items (DWP), such as living in a damp free home, and being able to eat three meals a day. This new measure was introduced in the UK government’s child poverty strategy (DWP, December 2025), and will be included in their annual HBAI report from now on.

The measure is based on the set of FRS material deprivation questions that were updated in FYE 2024. It will take until spring 2027 before we have the three year averages usually used to produce robust estimates for detailed breakdowns such as for countries.

However given the importance of this new metric, DWP will publish the first estimates of deep material poverty for UK countries and regions in this year’s report, as two year averages covering FYE 2024 to FYE 2025. We’ll include the figure in our Welsh report too.

Further details on the changes described in this blog can be found in the FRS: release strategy (DWP) and the HBAI: release strategy (DWP).

Stephanie Howarth
Chief Statistician