Gaining a clear understanding of the extent of housing need in Wales is essential for shaping the future of our homes and communities.

Darllenwch y dudalen hon yn Gymraeg.

Today we are publishing updated estimates of additional housing need in Wales. These figures replace the 2019-based estimates and draw on the latest available data, including the 2022-based household projections published in late 2025.

They are not forecasts or housing targets, but they help us understand the pressures that may shape housing need over the next 20 years.

The estimates are an evidence‑based assessment of how many additional homes are likely to be required to ensure that all households have access to adequate and suitable housing which is affordable for them.

What the estimates tell us

We measure two types of housing need.

• Existing unmet need, which includes: households currently in temporary accommodation plus households that are both overcrowded and concealed (for example, multi-family household such as families living with parents who would like to form their own household but are unable to and are living with at least one bedroom fewer than they require).
• Future housing need, based on projected growth in the number of households.

Existing unmet need

We estimate that around 9,400 households currently need an additional home. This figure includes households who are homeless and living in temporary accommodation, as well as those who are overcrowded and concealed within another household.

While this gives us a good indication of unmet housing need, it is likely to underestimate the true level of unmet need as some households who need housing support will not appear in this data. For example, not everyone experiencing homelessness approaches their local authority for help, and figures for temporary accommodation don’t capture those who are rough sleeping or staying informally with friends or family. Census data also doesn’t count single adults living with others as their own “concealed” household, even when they might want to form an independent household.

In our analysis, we assume that all households with existing unmet housing need require affordable housing. It is likely, some of those households would be able to secure a suitable home on the open market. However, without detailed evidence to separate out those cases, the most practical and transparent approach is to treat all identified existing unmet need as requiring affordable housing.

The figure for existing unmet need is higher than in 2019, reflecting the rise in homelessness in recent years.

Future housing need

Future housing need or newly arising need reflects projected changes in the number of new households being formed.

Over the first five-years (July 2025 to June 2030), we estimate that between 7,800 and 9,300 additional homes may be needed each year, with a central estimate of around 8,700.

Over the longer term, the projected level of newly arising need gradually slows down, consistent with slower growth in the 2022 based household projections. As always, uncertainty increases the further ahead we look.

Tenure split

For the first five years only, newly arising need is approximately split into:

• 65% market housing
• 35% affordable housing

All existing unmet need (9,400 units) is assumed to need affordable housing. We’ve only produced the tenure split for the first 5 years as, after this point, it becomes too uncertain to produce reliable estimates.

Changes since the last update

We’ve used broadly the same methodology for these new estimates as we did in 2019, but with some changes.

• Existing unmet need is presented as a single current estimate rather than being spread over several years.
• Newly arising need uses more up to date household projections.
• Data sources for income and rent have been refreshed to reflect current evidence.
• Estimates are provided at the national level only.

These changes reflect our improved understanding of how the estimates are used and the most appropriate best data and methods to support those uses.

More detail is available in the accompanying quality report.

How to use the estimates

• To support a better understanding of likely housing pressures.
• To inform housing and planning policy.
• To contribute to any future review of the National Development Framework.
• For wider analytical purposes, such as the upcoming Future Trends report.

How not to use the estimates

The estimates shouldn’t be interpreted as housing targets. The figures are based on assumptions about future demographic trends, incomes and rents, and cannot account for future policy changes or wider economic shifts.

The purpose of a housing waiting list – or housing register – is different to that of the estimates of additional housing need. Because they measure different things, the total number of households on waiting lists across Wales will differ considerably to these estimates. A waiting list is a list of households who have applied for social housing in a local authority area and can include households already in suitable accommodation, but who want to move, or households who need adaptations to their current home rather than an additional housing unit. Households can also be on more than one list.

They are different to local housing market assessments (LHMAs). They are produced differently and serve different purposes. Local authorities carry out LHMAs to identify the specific housing need of the communities within their area. Because LHMAs are produced at different times and use varying data sources and assumptions, their results cannot be combined into a Wales level estimate of housing need.

Final thoughts

Understanding housing need is vital to supporting communities and planning for the future. These new estimates provide a transparent, evidence-based view of the pressures facing Wales’ housing system. We welcome feedback from all users of these statistics. Please email: stats.housing@gov.wales

Stephanie Howarth
Chief Statistician